K872
                                        QJ107
                                        Q75
                                        Q4
        A9654                                                     QJ
        K53                                                         A962
        K                                                             83
        J1083                                                      A9752

                                        103
                                        84
                                        AJ109642
                                        K6

.Contract 3 Diamonds, opening lead the Jack of Clubs:

With ten cards missing the King, the odds favour finessing over playing the ace by about 3-1.  You need very strong evidence to ignore those odds.......

Here the clues are strong enough.  East has passed as dealer and has shown up with the ace of clubs and QJ of spades.  Thsat is 7 HCP.  Add to that West's failure to lead a heart.  With AK tht would have been West's preferred choice of opening lead.  The Heart honours are therefore split and East has at least the heart King.  That makes 10 points.  If East has Kx or Kxx of diamonds he would have opened the bidding with his 13 points.  Therefore West has the diamond King and the only hope is to play for it to be a singleton - play the ace!
 
 
 

Clive Keep December  2003